Who Are You and What Have you Done With the Phillies!?!??

I hate to say 'I told you so', but...

Oh, who am I kidding? I love to say I told you so.

There are few experiences which so excite and gratify an engineer or a baseball writer, and I fancy myself a bit of both, as being correct about something. Excepting perhaps getting to rub everyone else's noses in it later, when the truth of it is demonstrated.

And so, with the Phillies at long last in the playoffs, I get a chance to gloat, just a bit, as I look back on my 2007 Philadelphia season preview and see how smart I really was.

I suggested that the Phillies hoped-for regular lineup would be:

Rod Barajas, C

Ryan Howard, 1B

Chase Utley, 2B

Wes Helms, 3B

Jimmy Rollins, SS

Pat Burrell, LF

Aaron Rowand, CF

Shane Victorino, RF
I suggested, however, my skepticism at Helms keeping the 3B job, and in fact he lost it to Dobbs by mid-season, though he started only four fewer games there than Dobbs, and only one more than Abraham Nunez. I also suggested that, "Carlos’ [Ruiz'] minor league numbers...suggest that he can be a contributor at this level, if he gets a chance to play" and "I expect that it’s just a matter of time before Ruiz supplants Barajas in the starter’s role", which he did, and he did.

In reality, the most common lineup used was this one, though it only happened 15 times:

C. Ruiz

1B. Howard

2B. Utley

3B. Dobbs

SS. Rollins

LF. Burrell

CF. Rowand

RF. Victorino

Though I did not project any numbers for Ruiz, if I had, I would have guessed that he would hit in the .280ish range, when in reality he hit only .259, but with doubles power and decent patiance, but few homers.

Ryan Howard, I suggested, was, "...a virtual lock to hit 40+ homers, 25 doubles and drive in 110 runs or more." Howard actually hit 47 homers, 26 doubles and drove in 136 runs, though he also set a new record by striking out 199 times.

I also said that, "...there’s no reason to think [Chase Utley] can’t do it again" in reference to his impressive 2006 campaign. In reality, he improved upon his 2006 numbers substantially, raising his batting average by about 20 points, his OBP by about 30 points and his slugging percentage by almost 40 points. A broken bone in his hand robbed him of a month's worth of games (and probably an MVP Award), so his counting stats did not notably increase, but he was a much better player this year when healthy, which is no small accomplishment. I did not foresee this drastic improvement, I will admit.

I had pencilled Wes Helms into the 3B spot in the lineup, suggesting that his true ability is "probably hitting about .270/.340/.450 and playing ugly defense at third base." In reality, he hit only .246/.297/.368 and lost his regular job by mid-May. He did, however, make 9 errors and start only 3 double plays in 68 games at the hot corner, and a .932 fielding percentage that would have roughly approximated the second worst mark in the majors if he'd had enough playing time to qualify for the list, so i was right about that much. With that said, it should be noted that Brewers' Rookie of the Year candidate Ryan Braun gave renewed meaning to the phrase "ugly defense". He made 26 errors and a had a .895 fielding percentage, the worst in MLB since 1984, when Joel Youngblood had an .887 mark in 117 games at third, the first and last time in his 14-year career in which he was used as a regular third-sacker.
Helms' replacement, Greg Dobbs, I thought could hit ".290/.330/.450", and he actually hit .272/.330/.451, so I'd have to call that a minor victory.

I did not expect Jimmy Rollins to continue to develop, expecially his power, as he did, and I had hoped that if he continued to smack the longball as he had, that they would put him lower in the lineup to help drive in more runs. He did bat 3rd 23 times, especially when Utley was on the DL, but this did not stick, as the Phillies ended up with lots of power hitters, and wanted to keep their speed at the top of the lineup. Chalk that up to thewhims of narrow minded "baseball men" like Charlie Manuel or the lack of a viable alternative, your pick.

In any case, Rollins nearly matched his career best with a .344 OBP, and did set career highs with a .296 batting average, .531 slugging percentage, .875 OPS, 94 RBIs, 30 homers, 212 hits (2nd in the NL), 139 runs and 20 triples, both of which led the NL. He also stole 41 bases and got caught only 6 times, hit 38 doubles. He joined a handful of other players (Willie Mays in 1957, Frank Schulte in 1911, and Curtis Granderson this year) as the only ones in history with 20 each of homers, doubles, steals and triples. Rollins is the third of Philadelphia's viable MVP candidates, and would be the best choice of the three, though not as good a choice as Hanley Ramirez, or Matt Holliday or Prince Fielder or David Wright, all of whom created more runs than J-Roll.

Getting back to gloating...I had said about Pat Burrell, "...if you just let him play every day, he’ll hit .260 with patience and power, and will easily be one of the five most valuable left fielders in major league baseball." Burrell in fact hit .256/.400/.502 with 30 homers,97 RBIs, a career high 113 walks and according to Baseball Prospectus, was the 9th most valuable LF in MLB, by VORP. If Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano and Eric Byrnes had been centerfielders instead of left fielders, as I had expected, Burrell would have ranked 6th. Thank you, thankyouverymuch.

I said of Aaron Rowand, "it’s unreasonable to think that he’ll do much more than .275/.335/.450." Well, he actually hit .311/.376/.518 with 27 homers, 45 doubles, 105 runs and 89 RBIs. I missed that one. BIG time.

Regarding Shane Victorino, I warned fans not to, "be surprised if he manages to hit .310+ with 15 homers, 30 doubles and 25 steals, and if he can make some highlight-reel plays in center or right, maybe even winning a Gold Glove." In fact, Victorino hit .281 with 12 homers, 23 doubles sand 37 steals, closer to Baseball Prospectus' projection for him (.293, 13 homers, 24 doubles, but only 9 steals). Having not heard anything about him on highlight reels or in conversations around water coolers, I'm guessing that he'll have to wait at least anothe ryear for that Gold Glove.

As far as the Phillies pitching staff, I don't think anybody accurately predicted everything that went wrong there. How could you? How could you guess that Brett Myers, the team's ace in 2005-06, with no notable injury history, would spend most of the year in the bullpen as a closer, and the rest of it on the DL? That the newly acquired Freddy Garcia, who had averaged 220 innings and 15 wins per season for the last six years, would win one game, pitching only 58 innings with a 5.90 ERA and spend almost 2/3 of the year on the DL? That the Phillies would use 13 different starting pitchers? You couldn't.

But some things were fairly predictable.

I expected Jamie Moyer to "implode" though I did not define this. In fact, while his ERA shot up to 5.01, about 9% worse than the NL average, he did make 33 starts, win 14 games and keep the team in contention with a few decent starts in September, including 5.1 shutout innings yesterday in the game that clinched the NL East Division title for them. I expected him to retire by mid season, so I'm eating cro on this one as well, I must admit.

Cole Hamels, I had said, "could win 15 games and strikeout 200 batters if he stays healthy all year," though I admittedly thought this unlikely. In fact, hamels did win 15 games, but struck out only 177 batters, owing to the fact that he missed a month due to injury between mid-August and mid-September, and got only 28 starts and 183 innings.

Adam Eaton, I expected, would pitch horrendously and would lose his job inside of a month or two, but the Fates, the injuries, and the $25 million contract he signed conspired to make a fool of me once again (as though I needed the help!). As bad as Eaton was, and he was really, really bad (6.29 ERA in 161.2 innings), they simply could not afford to bench him. Garcia was injured, Myers was injured, and Jon Lieber didn't pitch after June 20th. There literally was nobody else to pitch on those days, as they had already bled their farm system dry of anyone who was likely to help, not to mention several who were (and did) not. Four rookies started one (and only one) game, none of whom got the win).

Without even an assortment of crummy re-treads in AAA from which to choose, the Phillies had to resort to trading for other teams' crummy re-treads, hence J.D. Durbin and Kyle Lohse. They dipped down to AA and brought up the surprisingly helpful Kyle Kendrick, who won 10 games but could be a flash in the pan, given his low strikeout rate. they enter the playoffs with Moyer, Hamels, Kendrick and Lohse, with (God help them) Eaton waiting in the wings in case anyone gets hurt and needs someone to come in and give up their runs for them.

As for the bullpen, this too was something of a mess. Tom Gordon got hurt, as I expected, and is the primary setup man for Myers. Geoff Geary came back to earth, but was still a useful pitcher, as I expected, and Ryan madson, left alone to pitch in relief, was the best pitcher in the bullpen for the first half of the year before getting hurt. Clay Condrey pitched exactly like you'd expect for a 30-something retread with lackluster careers in both the majors and the minors. He helped out where he could, which wasn't much.

Matt Smith, whom I had expected to be the #1 LOOGy, pitched badly and then went back to AAA, where he got hurt, too. Antonio Alfonseca, about whom I had said, "Unfortunately, neither his elbow, nor his body (all 250+ pounds of it) are in very good shape, and I’ll be very surprised if he can hang on for more than a month or two," is somehow still on the Phillies roster, despite his 5.44 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. I was right: I am surprised.

I estimated that the Phillies were, "a good shot at 90+ wins and a Wild Card, maybe even a division title," and specifically said that they would win 91 games, the Wild Card, and lose to Chicago in the NLDS. In actuality, of course, they won 89 games and the division (who knew that the Mets would tank so badly?) and are playing either the Padres or Rockies in the NLDS, not the Cubs, depending on whomever wins tonight's game.

So I'm picking the Cubs to beat them in the NL Championship Series.

2008 Philadelphia Phillies Preview

But first, a recap of 2007...

What went right?

Duh.

They won the NL East and therefore got into the playoffs for the first time since 1993!

Jimmy Rollins won the NL MVP Award that should have gone to Hanley Ramirez or David Wright. Ryan Howard followed up his 2006 MVP award nicely, and might have netted another one if he'd been healthy all year. Chase Utley finished 8th in the voting, and was better than either of them, though he missed 30 games with an injury.

Pat Burrell heald (almost perfectly) steady from his solid 2006 campaign. Aaron Rowand set career personal highs in Games, At-Bats, Runs, Hits, Doubles, Homers, Walks RBIs, OBP, Total Bases (and strikeouts). The bench was mostly solid, with Greg Dobbs, Jayson Werth and Tadahito Iguchi, who were all picked up for nothing or something very close to that, being particularly good.

Youngsters Cole Hamels and Kyle Kendrick combined to go 25-9.


What went wrong?

Pretty much everything to do with the pitching, and anyone who had anything to do with third base.

Brett Myers adapted well to closing after struggling through a few rough starts in April, but his work in that role was forced when Tom Gordon got injured and everyone else in the bullpen forgot how to get guys out. Taking the guy who should have been your best starter and turning him into a reliever cannot be considered a victory in any sense.

Jamie Moyer won 14 games, but he also lost 12 and had an ERA of 5.01. Adam Eaton "won" 10 games, but his 6.29 ERA and 30 homers allowed in 161 innings are much more telling of his season. By the end of June, both Freddy Garcia and Jon Leiber were gone for good, and by the end of July, so was Ryan Madson.

Third base was a revolving door, through which Charlie Manuel deperately sent various players to their doom. Abraham Nunez was almost comically bad (.234/.318/.282 with zero homers in 252 at-bats) and Wes Helms was not much better (.246/.297/.368 in 280 at-bats). Dobbs was decent, but didn't get enough playing time.

Ryan Howard, though he adapted well to Jan's old job, set a new MLB record by striking out 199 times.

The team, as a whole, spent it's whole stash trying to get into the playoffs and then had nothing left, and got swept out by the red-hot Rockies.


Looking ahead...

There have been some significant turnovers for the Phillies in the 2007-08 offseason.

The Offense:
...will be hampered both by its losses and its acquisitions, but the Phils probably will still be one of the top 5 hitting teams in all of MLB.

Rowand's big year netted him a 5-year, $60 million contract from the Giants, which was WAY more than Philly (or anyone else) was willing to pay. Rowand's departure, however, doesn't hurt nearly as much as the arrival of thirdbaseman Pedro Feliz. Feliz got a 2-year, $8.5M contract and, it is hoped he will provide "stability" to the third base situation. "Stability" being a euphemism for "mediocrity" in this case. He offers no more quality than incumbent Greg Dobbs did, but he comes with ten times the pricetag.

Another new acquisition, Geoff Jenkins, has a little power but not much else to offer. He can be decent as the lefty-hitting half of a platoon with Werth in RF, but probably isn't worth the $13 million they've promised him for 2008-09.

Carlos Ruiz, after a solid 2/3 of a season in 2007, should have a stranglehold on the starting catcher's job, and while he's not likely to be confused with Mike Piazza or even Joe Mauer, he should do well enough. Baseball prospectus has him projected to hit .270/.341/.413 in 389 at-bats, and that sounds about right, though I would give him a little more playing time, now that Rod barajas is out of the picture.

The rest of the offese, assuming everyone's healthy, should be great. Howard and Utley and Rollins are all MVP-type players, and more than make up for OM/3B Feliz. Burrell is as solid a left fielder as any in baseball, and Shane Victorino's proved that he can play every day. His modest offensive skills and exceptional speed will play better in CF than they did in right anyway.

The bench, while not spectacular on offense, has some worth (and one Werth!). Chris Coste can hit a little as he backs up Ruiz. Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs can play either corner once in a while, though hopefully neither will start in Howard's place unless they need a DH. Werth showed that he's healthy for once, and So Taguchi can be a useful pinch hitter or defensive replacement for any of the corner outfielders.


Pitching:

The Phillies will do well to let Brett Myers start and only start this year. The rotation is thin enough without turning a 200-inning pitcher into a 59-inning pitcher. Hopefully he bounces back and wins 15 games with a 3.85-ish ERA. Cole Hamels did exactly that last year but still needs to prove he's able to stay healthy if he wants the team to give him the kind of respect (read: money) he thinks he deserves.

Kyle Kendrick impressed a lot of people last year, but he'll need to prove his performance wasn't a fluke. Last year was the first of his 5-year pro career higher than A-Ball. he was doing well enough in AA that the desperate Phils gave him a shot in the majors, and he managed to stick, but the smart guys over at Baseball Prosectus have him projected for a 9-11 record and a 5.35 ERA this year.

The rest of the rotation should be just that: rotating. The nominal 4th and 5th starters are 45-year old Jamie Moyer and (God help them) Adam Eaton. Moyer was at least durable, if not "good" last year, and the Phillies could do worse than to have a guy like him as their #5 starter, someone who can keep the team in games and let the mashers win it against the soft underbelly of the opposition's rotation.

But Eaton? He was dreadful last season, and the Phillies are stuck with him for two more. I can't see him pitching like he did last year and staying employed for the whole year. They'd be better served giving someone from their AAA team a long look, someone like John Ennis or J.A. Happ. Even the Dust-Bin Durbins (J.D. and Chad, no relation) might be better than Eaton, who keeps trying to prove he can't pitch, but nobody wants to believe him. In any case, the Phillies have no shot at repeating as the Wild Card if they don't do something to shore up the pitching rotation.

The Bullpen should be better than the rotation, but until they get Brad Lidge back healthy, the whole group is weakened. Lidge's knee surgery makes Tom Gordon the closer again, temporarily, which makes Ryan Madson the primary right-handed setup man instead of the long-man. That, in turn, forces them to use the likes of Clay Condrey, Scott Matthieson, and the Dust-Bin Durbins more often. At least they've got J.C. Romero, one of the more consistent lefty relievers in the majors.


Summary:

I have a hard time imagining that the Phillies offense can compensate for their lack of pitching. If the chances of Cole Hamels staying healthy enough to pitch 200+ innings and win 15+ games are slim, then the chances of Brett Myers rebounding to again be one of the 10 or 15 best starters in the NL are all but nonexistent. A dozen wins and an ERA around 4.25 might be more realistic, and that just won't be enough. Kendrick's future is anybody's guess, and the rest of the rotation is likely to be a revolving door of guys with ERAs on the wrong side of 5.00, as they were last year. The bullpen can't make up for that, and they don't have the minor league talent to either plug in or trade for another solid starter.

My best guess is something like 84-78, no playoffs.

The Wild Card will come out of the NL West.

Yankees, Phillies, Sign Infielders Who May or May Not Suck

The more things change, the more they stay the same...

Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano has reportedly been signed to a 4-year, $30 million contract for the 2008-11 seasons, with options for 2012 and 2013 that could make the whole thing worth $55 million. Cano had three more years of arbitration eligibility, so this signing represents a departure from the Yankees' usual approach of waiting for free agency, which frequently requires them to pay top dollar and then some for their players.

I was not that high on Cano when I saw him in the playoffs a couple of years ago, and you can read why in the second half of this post if you like. At the time, he almost never walked, flipped everything he hit weakly to left field, and was not making the routine plays at second base. Since then, however, his Isolated Power has increased slightly, and his Secondary Average (a way to measure how many bases a batter gains independent of batting average) has increased dramatically. This is a good sign, since batting average tends to be pretty fickle from year to year.

In addition, Cano has become one of the better defensive seocndbasemen in all of MLB, at least according to Baseball Prospectus, +26 Fielding Runs Above Average, good for about two and a half Wins right there. All of that made Cano worth more than 9 Wins more than a replacement-level second baseman, which is usually MVP-voting territory. Alas, the voters do like their shiny objects, though, so Cano did not get any votes this year, as he did in 2006 when he hit .342, even though he was not as productive a player overall that year.

Since he just turned 25, this keeps Cano locked up through his "prime years", his age 25 through 28 seasons, plus two more if they want him, and "only" a $2M buyout if they don't. Cano's walk has rate improved dramatically since his freshman campaign, from about once every 35 at-bats in 2005 to about once every 18 ABs last year, but that's still well below the AL average, which is about once every 10. He's demonstrated that he can turn on a pitch once in a while, and if the improvement in his defense is real, the Yanks should have themselves a key player at the Keystone for the next half a decade.

By contrast, the Phillies have signed San Francisco Giants' castoff third baseman Pedro Feliz to a two-year, $8.5 million deal. There's an option for a third year and performance bonuses that could net Feliz $15 million before the deal is done. Feliz has essentially two things going for him as a player: He's durable, having averaged about 152 games per season since the Giants made him a regular four years ago, and he's a decent fielder, with +9 and +14 FRAA the last two seasons, respectively. After that, the race downhill would rival one of Bill Cosby's go-cart racing stories.

• Feliz looks like he hits for power, because he's got 20+ homers the last four years, but really, he's average in that department. The average MLB thirdbaseman hit .273/.341/.442 with 21 homers and 89 RBIs last year. Feliz hit .253/.290/.418 with 20 homers and 72 RBIs. Lee Sinins rates him as 22 runs below an average MLB hitter, and Baseball Prospectus has him as -14. That's bad, either way, and his defense doesn't make up for it.



• Feliz doesn't hit for average, with a career .252 BA, and doesn't walk. His OBP last year ranked him #158 out of 162 players in MLB who got at least 502 plate appearances last season. In 2006, he was 157/160. In 2005 he was 146/148 and in 2004 he was 154 out of 161. That means he's never finished better than 8th from the bottom in OBP in any season in which he's been a regular, and this in the most important statistic in baseball. You just can't make up for that kind of poor hitting with your defense, not at a corner infield position.



• Feliz' walk rate was once every 21 at-bats for the last two seasons, but unlike the aforementioned Cano, that rate doesn't have much hope of changing, because...



• Feliz will be 33 in April, and is therefore past the point where we should expect him to improve, learn new skills, or in any way, well, get good.

The irony here is that the Phillies already had Greg Dobbs on their roster, and have decided to keep him in spite of the signing of Feliz. Dobbs was picked up off the waiver wire from Seattle last winter, and played quite well for such a cheap acquisition, hitting .272/.330/.451, more or less just like I said he would, though he's nothing special with the leather. Still, when you've already got a 29-year old thirdbaseman who's worth about 3 Wins above replacement over the course of the season on the roster, making the major league minimum, why would you go out and find another thirdbaseman of similar worth, and pay him ten times as much to supplant someone of similar quality?

Well, I'll tell you why. There are two possibilities:

1) You're insane.

B) You're stupid.

Because no sane person charged with running a major league baseball team would want to do something that so obviously hurts the team, and I don't think that Phillies GM Pat Gillick is insane, I have to go with option number B. Maybe "stupid" isn't the best word, but "grossly underinformed" might be. OK, so that's two words. Why Gillick, who helmed the Toronto Blue Jays when they won two World Series back in the early 1990's, would do something like this is beyond me, unless he simply does not understand how important OBP is. Money to burn, I guess.

Still, in some ways, this is par for the course with Philadelphia. They had a "hole" at third in that they did not have a "name player" at third, and even though there wasn't really anybody any good available on the free agent market, when the guys who actually were good were taken, they overpaid for an also-ran. If it doesn't work out, Gillick can, like his predecessor, Ed Wade, lament the over-priced, underproductive nature of the free agent market without taking any kind of accountability for helping to inflate those prices.

Phillies Win 2008 World Series, Just Like I Didn't Not Expect they Wouldn't

See? Didn't I tell you that you shouldn't not bet money on the Phillies!

Congratulations to the Philadelphia Phillies, who won only the second World Championship of their long, generally disappointing existence last night, as they beat the Tampa Bay Rays 4-3, and four games to one in the Series. And though I picked the Rays to win the Series (knowing that in doing so, they wouldn't) a few of the points I made in that column proved to be prescient.



The Rays did not manage to contain Ryan Howard, who homered three times and drove in six, both marks leading the team. Chase Utley, while hitting only .167 overall, also walked five times, stole three bases and homered twice, including the first run of the Series in game 1, giving the Phils a lead they never relinquished. Victorino's bat returned to more normal levels, and he was basically a non-factor.

Jayson Werth's bat did not continue its slumber, hitting .444/.583/.778 with a homer, three doubles and four runs scored, plus three successful steals. Personally, he'd have gotten the MVP award for the series, if I'd had any say in it. Cole Hamels got it instead, pitching well twice, as I had expected, and the bullpen (2-0, 2 Saves, 5 Holds and a 1.54 ERA in about a dozen innings) was great.

To my great surprise, however, Pat Burrell went utterly cold (hitting .071) while Carlos Ruiz and Pedro Feliz, both hit pretty well, though Feliz hit only singles and did not score a run. Matt Stairs hardly played, as Manuel chose Greg Dobbs as his DH in Game 2, and Games 6 and 7 never happened, at least not in reality. (In TravisMind FantasyLand, Stairs was the DH in both Games 6 and 7. So there.)



To my even greater surprise, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton all pitched well in their starts, though Myers took a tough loss. The three of them combined for a 3.72 ERA in 19 innings. Also, Brad Lidge did a decidedly un-Philly-like job of not cracking under the pressure, Saving two games and keeping his perfect record intact. (As a side note, I found it rather amusing when he was interviewed afterwards, talking about what great fans they have in Philly. Wait til you blow a Save, there, Brad. You'll see.)

For their part, the Tampa Bay Rays starting pitchers did reasonably well. Their 4.21 World Series ERA was only a quarter of a run higher than their in-season ERA of 3.95, but that's to be expected with tougher competition. The real problem was that they averaged only a little over five innings per start. Nobody got past the 6th inning, and two of their five starts lasted only four frames. (James Shields, who got the sole Rays win, pitched 5.2 shutout innings in Game 2.)

The Phillies just wore them down, waiting for their pitches, and drawing 17 walks in 26 innings, and forcing each pitcher's count upwards of 100 early, so that the Rays had no chance of saving their bullpen. This, of course, put a lot more strain on the Rays bullpen than might otherwise have been desirable, which is exactly what Philadelphia wanted. Textbook Moneyball strategy, right there. The Tampa Bay relievers' ERA in this series, 4.96, was about a run and a half higher than it had been in the regular season, as they allowed 4 homers in 16 innings, and JP Howell took two of the four losses. Dan Wheeler, who had been very good in the regular season, also struggled.

But the Rays' real problem was their lack of hitting. Forget the ugly ERAs for a moment. Ten of Philly's 24 runs (and 8 of 21 Earned Runs) were scored in Game 3. The other four contests were each won by one run. A little more output from some of the Rays hitters, and this Series goes to six or seven games, at least. (Not "at least" seven games, like they'd play eight or nine. I mean they could have at least pushed the Series to seven games, and maybe even won it.)



The biggest culprits here are, of course, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena, the heart of the Rays' lineup, their #3 and #4 hitters. These two combined to go 3-for-37, scoring one run between them. Carl Crawford (2 homers, 4 runs) did his part. Dioner Navarro did more than his part, hitting .353, even though he allowed seven of eight steals. Akinori Iwamura was only a little worse than usual, and BJ Upton, though he hit only .250, managed to steal four bases and score three runs. Jason Bartlett hit only .214, which looks pretty bad until you realize: it's Jason Bartlett. Nobody expects him to hit.

Despite the game tying homer last night, Rocco Baldelli didn't do much either, and Ben Zobrist's bat was quiet as well, but those were part time players. Pena and Longoria were the big guys expected to contribute and they both came up small. When looking back on this Series, there is no greater reason for the Rays; defeat than that.



Well, that, and the fact that I picked them to win.

2008 World Series (Almost) Preview: Phillies vs. Rays

This is an exciting time to be a fan of a beleaguered franchise. Not only are two of the most pathetic teams in history playing in the World Series this year, but inevitably, one of them must win it. The handful of fans remaining in Kansas City waits with baited breath.

The Phillies, the losing-est team in major league baseball, nay, in sports history, with one lonely World Championship in their 125 years of existence, and that almost 30 years ago now, will represent the Senior Circuit. In the other corner, with the worst winning percentage of any team in baseball history,and appropriately enough, representing the so-called Junior Circuit, a team barely a decade old. In their first 10 years, the Rays finished last nine times, and second to last once, before winning 97 games and their division in 2008.

I'm pretty decent at predictions over the whole season, but these playoff series always seem to elude me.

• In 2005, though I picked some of the playoff series correctly, I picked the Astros to beat Chicago in the World Series, which of course did not actually, you know, happen.


• In 2006 I picked all four of the Division Series exactly wrong, then picked the Tigers to beat the Cardinals. Oops.


• In 2007, I didn't make any predictions, but the playoffs happened anyway.


• And this year I picked the Dodgers to beat the Phillies in seven games and the Red Sox to take out the Rays (in 5 games!), so it's clear that I'm no good at picking winners.

If anything, I'm good at picking the team that won't win, kind of like women with driving directions. But I don't want to ruin the surprise, so you'll have to keep reading if you don't want to not find out who you shouldn't not bet on.

As for what you might expect, well...

Offense:

The Phillies seem to be a slightly better offensive team than Tampa Bay. Philadelphia wasn't quite as good as I had predicted before the season, but they were close. They ranked 9th in the majors in runs scored, 7th in OPS, compared to the Rays at 10th and 13th, respectively. That disparity is even greater when you consider thet the Rays got to use a DH in most of their games, while the Phillies did not. Interestingly, however, the fact that The Trop is a slight pitcher's park while The Vault is a hitter's park mostly negates all that, and they both wind up with a team adjusted OPS of 103.

Key components of the offense for the Phillies are:

1B Ryan Howard, who led the majors in homers and RBIs, but was also 8th in the NL with 475 outs made, including 199 whiffs for the second year in a row. In the playoffs so far he's been mostly stymied, hitting only .258 with two extra base hits (doubles) and three RBIs in 9 games. For the Rays to win, they'll likely have to continue to keep Howard's bat in check.

2B Chase Utley, who drove in 100+ runs for the 4th straight year in 2008, and has hit some in the playoffs as well, with a homer, 5 runs and 5 RBIs, despite the .250 batting average. He's a perennial MVP candidate, and can hardly be overestimated. The Dodgers learned this the hard way, when he hit .353/.522/.647 against them in the NLCS.

LF Pat Burrell, who has averaged 31 homers, 99 RBIs and 103 walks for the past four seasons. He, too, has been key in the playoffs, hitting .300 with 3 homers and 7 RBIs in nine games.

SS Jimmy Rollins. The Phillies' leadoff man and reigning NL MVP hit .375 in the NLDS, but only .143 in the series against Los Angeles, though he did coincidentally hit leadoff homers in the clinching games of both series. He's still a threat to hit for power, steal bases, and/or record a rap song.

CF Shane Victorino, who is a decent player who's gotten hot in the playoffs. Normally a .290/.350/.430 player with speed, Victorino has been the biggest story of the Phillies' postseason so far, with two homers, three doubles, a triple and 11 (!) RBIs in only nine games to date, plus three steals in three attempts. He's not this good, folks, and won't likely keep it up for another week, especially if his exploits in the earlier series start to swell his ego.

Jayson Werth, though he's been mostly quiet in the playoffs, is still a force to be reckoned with as well, especially against lefties, against whom he hit .303/.368/.652 this year. Tampa's Game 1 starter and three of their key relievers are all southpaws, so watch out.

Fortunately for the Rays, the Phillies also employ Pedro Feliz and Carlos Ruiz, who have both hit around the Mendoza Line in the playoffs so far, and neither of whom is really much better than that.

Though he wouldn't admit it beforehand, Charlie Manuel will probably usually use Matt Stairs as his DH. Stairs isn't much against lefties, and so likely won't start Game 1 (only three homers in the last four seasons, total). Sadly, Geoff Jenkins, So Taguchi and Greg Dobbs are all just as bad or worse, so they'll probably use backup catcher Chris Coste against Scott Kazmir and just take their chances that Carlos Ruiz doesn't get beaned or something.

Tampa Bay, though generally devoid of any superstars, has a lot of solid, versatile role-players. At first glance, it would seem that the only real power threats are Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria, but Ben Zobrist slugged .505 in limited playing time this year and B.J. Upton (4 homers and 11 RBIs against the Red Sox, plus 3 more homers against the White Ones) obviously cannot be ignored either. Whatever knocked his homer total down from 24 to nine this year does not seem to be a problem anymore.

More important, perhaps, a healthy Carl Crawford (hitting .302 with six steals in six tries in the postseason) in the middle of the lineup strengthens the whole team. Catcher Dioner Navarro hit .295 in the regular season and .400 against the Pale Hose, but went cold against the Red Sox.

The rest of the lineup is filled out by solid but (talent-wise) largely undistinguishable role players. Akinori Iwamura and Rocco Baldelli are better than they've played so far in the postseason, though Baldelli is basically a singles hitter at this point in his career, who's no longer a threat to steal. Gabe Gross and Cliff Floyd both have a little pop in their bats, if not much else, and Jason Bartlett can amke contact and steal an occasional base. They've got a little power, a little speed, some guys who hit for average...in other words, no obvious or clear-cut strengths, nor weaknesses.

Pitching:

The Phillies' 3.88 ERA was 4th in the NL, 6th in MLB, almost exactly the same as the 3.82 posted by Tampa, which was 2nd in the majors. This is a slightly more impressive number given that they play in the DH-using American League, but again that is mitigated by the fact that they play in a pitcher's park and the Phillies play in a phonebooth. Their adjusted ERA?

Phils: 115
Rays: 114

Again, like the teams' offenses, remarkably evenly matched.

The differences are in where their strengths lie. The Phillies have a decent starting staff, overall, but they had a 4.23 ERA as starters, only 13th in MLB, and there's a lot of weight on Hamels' performance even to bring those numbers to where they are. The rest of the rotation gets pretty mediocre after him.

Their real strength is in their bullpen, where the team's 3.19 ERA was the second best in MLB. Brad Lidge still has not blown a Save all year, and Ryan Madson (3.05 ERA in 83 innings), and LHP J.C. Romero (2.75 in 59 Innings) have been very good. Amazingly, so have Chad Durbin (2.87 in 88 innings) and Clay Condrey (3.26 in 69 IP). This bullpen is so good that they could leave Rudy Seanez (5-4, 3.53 ERA in 43 innings) entirely off the postseason roster.

Keep in mind, however, that Lidge is overdue for an implosion, and this would be a very Philadelphia-esque time for him to decide he needs to ruin his spotless 2008 record.

I'm just sayin'.

The Tampa Bay bullpen's 3.55 ERA ranked 5th in MLB, so they're not exactly chopped liver either, but the 3.95 starters' ERA was the 6th best in MLB, and the second best in the tougher American League. They have a very balanced starting rotation, with five guys who won at least 11 games, but none with more than 14. The most crucial aspect of their starting corps was its health, as only nine starts went to someone other than their nominal starting five. Scott Kazmir's got the most talent, with a team-best 3.49 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning, but there's really nobody bad on the staff. Edwin Jackson (14-11, 4.42 ERA in 183 innings) is the odd man out, since they only need four starters for the playoffs, and most teams would love to have someone like that.

Tampa Bay's bullpen, headed up by Grant Balfour, JP Howell, Dan Wheeler and rookie phenomenon David Price, makes up in talent what it lacks in name recognition. Erstwhile closer Troy Percival is the worst pitcher in the bunch, and he's saved over 350 games in his career.

Getting back to the Phillies, Game 2 starter Brett Myers has plenty of talent, but his performance has been erratic this year. (By the way, Brett: Harry Shearer called: he wants his eyebrows back.) He won Game 2 of the NLDS, pitching 7 innings and allowing only two runs, beating C.C. Sabathia, no less, but then got hit hard by the Dodgers, allowing five runs in five innings (including ten baserunners and a wild pitch) in the NLCS, though he got the win anyway because Clay Billingsley suddenly forgot how to get anybody out.

The rest of the Phillies' rotation is very sketchy.

Jamie Moyer is probably really excited to be in the World Series, since his last opportunity at the feat was ruined when John McGraw and the Giants refused to play his Boston Americans in 1904.

Despite winning 16 games this year, Jamie Moyer is still 4,239 years old and probably hasn't got much left in the tank. This year he was much better on the road (10-3, 2.92 ERA) than he was in Philadelphia (6-4, 4.61) but unfortunately, he draws the Game 3 start at Citizen's Bank Park. He's allowed eight runs in 5.1 total innings over two outings in this postseason, and I don't see how the Phillies can expect much from him in Game 3, especially since he's opposed by Matt Garza, who allowed only 2 runs while fanning 14 Red Sox in 13 innings during his two starts in the ALCS.

The Phils' #4 starter, Joe Blanton, is basically a LAIM, but he's got a 6.05 career ERA against the Rays in about 42 career innings, most of which were accumulated before 2008, when the Rays were the Devil Rays, and also sucked. He's been a mixed bag this postseason, pitching brilliantly for 6 innings against the Brewers (one run, 7 K's, no walks) but then allowing 11 baserunners and three runs in 5 innings against the Dodgers.

Blanton's competition is Andy Sonnastine, who won 13 games in the regular season, including a 4-0, 2.97 record against the National League (2 games against Florida, and then Pittsburg, St. Louis and the Cubs). He's not a great pitcher, but he's got good control, and has pitched well enough to garner two wins in the postseason so far.

So, my prediction is... (and it should be noted that I'm finishing this on Thursday morning, after the Phillies have already won Game 1):

Moyer and Myers won't survive the 6th, maybe even the 5th innings of their respective starts, thoug Myers will probably last the longer of the two. Tampa wins those games more or less easily. The Blanton-Sonnastine start will be closer, and Tampa could still pull it out, but I'll give that game to the Phillies. Hamels wins again in Game 6, and then Garza stymies the Phillies in Game 7 (as Jamie Moyer surrenders six runs in three innings, and is then taken up to heaven in a white chariot).

The Rays win it in seven.

There you go, folks! Place your bets on the Phillies now!

Phillies Chances to Score 1,000 Runs? None and None.

Baseball fans do love their history, though some of them don't really know it all that well.

Heck, some people who work in baseball don't know their history. And I don't just mean the 20-something security guard I met at Yankee Stadium on Saturday who did not know that the Yankees used to play in Baltimore. (No offense to him, by the way. Most New Yorkers think the universe starts and ends at the George Washington Bridge.)

I'm talking about important people. (Again, no offense to that security guard, who was created in the image of God, just like the rest of us, and is therefore of preeminent importance...just like the rest of us.)

I mean people like Charlie Manuel, the field manager for the Philadelphia Phillies. Manuel was quoted before the season began as saying that he thought the 2008 Phillies could score 1,000 runs or more. His argument, essentially, was that they scored a lot of runs last year (892, leading the NL) and that they had some missed time by Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. He thinks that Howard and Utley and Jimmy Rollins and others on the team have the potential to be even better than they were last year. He thinks that they could become the first team since the 1999 Cleveland Indians, for whom Manuel was the hitting coach, to score 1,000 or more runs.

Or at least he thought that in Spring Training. I didn't, so I didn't bother to mention it in my Phillies Preview, though I did think they'd be one of the better offensive teams in the NL. To date, in the regular season, the Phillies have scored only 32 runs in 7 games, a pace of only 740 runs. Better pick it up a little, guys.

But seriously, could they score that many runs? The sort answer is:

No.

Doesn't get much shorter than that.

Want to know why? That's easy. Nobody ever has.

Well, that's not technically true. The 1930 St. Louis Cardinals scored 1004 runs, but no other National League team since the 1890's has scored 1,000 in a season. Those Cardinals managed that feat in a league that averaged 5.68 runs per game. At that rate, in today's 162 ganme schedule, an average team would score 920 runs. The 1930 Cards had 12 guys (including all eight regulars) who got at least 100 at bats and hit .303 or better. As a team, they hit .314. That was only 3rd in the NL that year. They had three Hall of Famers in their prime in the daily lineup (Chick Hafey, Jim Bottomley and Frankie Frisch). They had three guys who hit at least .366 on the bench(!)

The best mark in a 162-game season goes to the 2000 Colorado Rockies, who scored 968 runs. This, too, was largely a product of the run environment in which the team played. The national League that year averaged exactly 5.00 runs per game, which means that the average team scored 810 runs. However, Coors Field in Y2K was an insane hitter's park, the most severe in history, I think, increasing run scoring by about 25%. That means that a average hitting team would have scored 911 runs playing half its games in Coors Field. Their 968 runs were only about 6% better than average.

The best hitting team in history, taking league and ballpark context into account, is probably the 1953 Brooklyn Dodgers. They scored "only" 955 runs, but they did it in a roughly neutral hitter's park (Ebbets Field), and in a league that averaged 4.75 runs per contest, about what the 2007 National League averaged. They scored about 28% more runs than an average team that year. Put the 1953 Dodgers in a neutral park in the 2007 National League, and they'd have scored about 977 runs. Still 23 shy of Charlie Manuel's prediction. With a little help from Citizens Bank Park (which increases runs by about 5%), they'd easily break the record, scoring about 1025 runs. In Colorado, even though it has been significantly tamed in recent years, tack on another 35-40 runs.

So what would have to happen for the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies to score 1,000 or more runs?

Assuming that Citizens Bank Park doesn't suddenly morph into a severe hitter's park, and that the trend toward normal offensive levels in the post-steroids era doesn't reverse itself abruptly, the Phillies will have to score about 25% more runs than an average NL team would, which is a huge number. Not only do they need to get virtually every game out of their stars Howard, Utley and reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins, they need just about everybody on the team to vastly out-perform their projected offensive levels.

The simple fact that they play ing the National League, with a pitcher hitting about twice a game or more, makes it all but impossible. The last team to score 1,000 runs, the 1999 Indians, did not have to watch their pitchers hit twice a game. In 1930, the Cardinals' pitchers collectively hit .213 and scored 51 runs. Last year, Phillies' pitchers hit just .155 as a group and scored 28 runs, and that was the best in the majors for a pitching staff.

But what might we expect, or need, from the rest of the lineup?

Baseball Prospectus uses percentiles in their projections, showing not only what a player is likely to do (his 50% projection) but also what he might do if he "kicks it up a notch" or, conversely, gets kicked. His 50% projection essentially means that about 50% of the players similar to him did better than that and 50% did worse. The 75% projection would mean a performance that's better than 3/4 of the players they deemed to be similar in that year.

As far as I can tell, you'd need just about everyone in the starting lineup to meet or exceed his 90th percentile projection, and for everyone on the bench to hit at least their 75% percentile, in order for the Phillies to score 1,000+ runs. That team would look like this at the end of the season:

Starters     PA    R    2B   HR  RBI   BB    SO   SB   AVG   OBP   SLG
Victorino   570   105   29   18   66   46    67   28  .315  .377  .501
Rollins     730   131   43   26   88   59    75   34  .318  .377  .532
Utley       646   122   39   34  103   68   100   10  .328  .408  .596
Howard      711   139   33   59  147  113   184    2  .302  .417  .665
Ruiz        454    72   27   13   57   42    56    7  .303  .374  .480
Feliz       487    67   26   21   74   28    67    2  .289  .332  .492
Burrell     536    97   26   33   86  101   121    2  .283  .420  .583
Jenkins     392    64   20   22   70   35    88    3  .300  .369  .559

Bench
Werth       289    49   14   10   33   41    69    7  .275  .385  .469
Taguchi     233    37   12    3   22   18    25    5  .297  .358  .405
Coste       252    33   12    7   32   15    39    1  .276  .325  .431
Dobbs       313    50   17   11   41   27    49    5  .288  .352  .484
Helms       241    36   15    9   35   19    43    1  .296  .357  .501
Bruntlett    95    13    5    1    7   10    16    4  .281  .371  .414
Snelling    143    21    8    4   16   17    29    2  .288  .383  .494
Total      6092  1036  326  275  860  635  1010  152  .301  .359  .501

There would need to be another 350 or so plate appearances for the pitchers as well, which might mean aonther 25-30 runs. Those are just guesses on the percentages at the bottom.

Anyway, I don't have to tell you that this would be an absolutely incredible team, and that it can only exist in Phantasy-delphia, where the Phans don't boo, the cheese steaks are free and don't contain any cholesterol, and every batter gets to have a career year simultaneously.

Not only would H.U.R. reach their full potential. Those three are in their prime, so any one or even two of them having their best years simultaneously (as Rollins and Utley did last year) is not totally out of the question, but all three of them? Again?!!??

Pat Burrell would need to out-do his career batting average by 25 points at age 31. Thirty-three year old mediocrity Pedro Feliz would need to hit almost 40 points above his career mark, without losing any power. Geoff Jenkins, 33 himself, will need to hit .300 for the first time in this milennium. Carlos Ruiz, who just made it to the show at 29, will have to buck every convention of baseball scouting history and hit over .300 in a full season. Shane Victorino will need to double his usual power level while increasing both his patience and his average, and can't let his speed be sacrificed.

And everyone on the bench needs to play well enough that they would force the issue of whether or not they deserve more playing time. That is, if everyone on the Phatasy-delphia Phillies wasn't having a career year. Which, as you'll recall, they are.

In the AL, with another All-Star playing as a DH, they might be able to do it.

But they aren't, and they don't, so they can't.

In short: It ain't gonna happen.

2009 Phillies Preview...in Iambic Pentameter (sort of)

The Phillies won themselves a World Series,
Beat the Tampa Bay Rays with rel'tive ease!
A championship! And long-awaited!
City of Brotherly Love, elated!
But now they face a new season: Oh-Nine,
Their foes take aim, they'll have no easy time
Repeating as Darlings of October...
Will their season end before it's over?

Starting Pitching:

The team's hopes start with Hamels, their big ace
The Series MVP, the Phranchise Phace,
Two hundred innings plus, this year he'll give
And each time out, he'll keep the hope alive.
A nasty change-up from his arm, sinister
Will make opponents hear, "Sit down, Mister!"
At only twenty-five and not abused,
His arm for 20 wins could well be used.



Brett Myers gets the nod as starter, second,
For thirty starts again, he should be beckoned.
He's better than his middling ERAs
But needs to prove it, get back to the days
In '05, '06, under four he stayed
And he still can, he's only twenty eight.
A breakout season they need, not a LAIM
Fifteen-plus wins, he's no one left to blame.
If he can't do it now, he never will
A few more years, and he's over the hill.

Blanton's number three, an innings-eater
His slider, curve and low 90's heater
Provide six innings, quite reliable.
Mechanics make him inviolable.
Perhaps not much to watch, not exciting
Won't miss bats, without a slider, biting,
But more than earns his modest salary
(Though he should maybe watch the calories!)

Fourth is Jamie Moyer, ancient of days
Who helped the Phils to beat the Tampa Rays.
Sixteen games he won through the long season
Though some thought him done, and with good reason.
For two years more the Phillies, they signed him
And though his best seasons are behind him
He might give just enough to be useful
Though I doubt it, if I must be truthful.




The Number five spot, quite likely revolving:
(Kendrick's not much good, and not evolving.)
Chan Ho Park could start sometimes, but it seems
His ERA, helped by Chavez Ravine
Will likely blow up this year in The Vault.
The minors seem bare, though not Ruben's fault,
Won't help much, unless someone surprises.
The same poor pitching, in many guises.

Bullpen:

Closers can't remain perfect, as Brad Lidge
Was in '08. He'll drop off, just a smidge,
But should remain a thoroughbred stopper
Helping the Phillies remain on top, or
Barring that, at least he'll fan his share of
Batters, for Phillies Phans to cheer thereof.
But if Philly's season hopes, they Phalter
It won't be his fault, he's like Gibraltar.




After Brad Lidge, rounding out the bullpen:
Madson, Condrey, Chan Ho, Eyre and Durbin,
Some quality arms, some who are re-treads.
"Condrey and Durbin," say some cooler heads,
"Should regress some from last year's performance.
Low ERAs, with little conformance
To anything they had done before this!"
By not pointing this out, I'd be remiss.

But Madson is a solid reliever,
With two good seasons, he's made believers
In Philly and beyond. Hitters hate him
And his slow change-up, "Bland ultimatum!"
They'd rather be challenged with smoking heat
But it's off-speed stuff he uses to beat
Them, and more of the same you'll see this year
He's both young and quite good, so have no fear!

Scott Eyre is the Phillies' only southpaw
Due to Romero's run-in with the law
From tainted powder, 6-Oxo Extreme
(Of pitching 'fore June, he can only dream),
But once he returns the Phils are stronger,
Though in contention, perhaps no longer
They'll be if the starters cannot maintain
Their '08 levels and be more than LAIM.

And those who don't start should pitch some innings,
Out of the bullpen, vulture some winnings,
Though Park and Kendrick and Happ aren't much,
To coax outs from them will take a soft touch.

If there's more relief help, it's hard to see.
Majewski, Zagurski, Dave Borowski?
All washed-up and lousy they were last year
Such dreck in the majors? No! Please not here!


Offensive Starters:

1)
As for the offense, begins the order:
Number 11, a man much shorter
Than many of his peers, though they can't boast
Of an MVP, to him, they must toast.

But from that height, he seems to have fallen,
Though still a great shortstop, Jimmy Rollins.
His glove is no slouch, he's earned two Gold ones,
And backs up his words (he utters bold ones!)

His bat, more than adequate, it should yield
A hundred-plus runs, if he stays on-field,
Hit a few homers, could walk more often
But don't expect vintage Kenny Lofton.



2)
The two-hole, also manned by a shorty,
With O-B-P's well over .340:
Shane Victorino, "Flyin' Hawaiian"
His small stature, his talent belyin'.

Decent BA, a handful of homers,
Good defense (among center field roamers),
Excellent speed (he'll steal 30 bases),
Still in his prime, just 28, he is.

3)
Second baseman, Utley, the third batter,
Should this year 40-plus doubles, scatter,
And hit 30 taters. Runs he'll drive in,
And score some himself, plus make some divin'

Stops up the middle. Perhaps a Gold Glove?
Alas, last year's voters showed him no love
Though vastly better he was than Brandon,
(The voting gets increasingly random.)

Regardless, Chase is the best keystoner
In MLB. At that, he's a loner,
An MVP threat, without any peer,
But Philly will need more than him this year.

4)
Cleanup man? First baseman, Ryan Howard
Last year with much undue praise was showered
For driving in runs and hitting some jacks.
Such people ignored the cost of those hacks:

Almost 200 whiffs, low O-B-P...
His VORP, on his own team, ranked #3!
Still he had value, not a bad player,
But much like Casey, per Ernest Thayer.

Likely to improve on .251,
But not the best fielder under the sun,
Defense atrocious and legs immobile,
But more power than erstwhile Chernobyl!





5)
Raul Ibanez bats fifth, plays left field,
(Philly to Burrell's demands would not yield.)
Out goes The Bat they thought not a keeper,
And in comes Raul: Older, not cheaper.

Still can't play defense, walks much less often,
Hits more singles, (the blow, this should soften)
But little difference in their net effects
Should there be this year, unless one gets wrecked

With injuries, or else early, ages.
Smart cash is on Raul, say the sages,
To start his decline phase, slow attrition.
By June, for Pat, Phils' Phans could be wishin'!

6)
Next we have Werth, him, finally healthy,
Had a career year, made himself wealthy,
But can he build on last year's good numbers?
Or will his bat instead choose to slumber?

The more common problem for him has been
That his wrist ailment, to heal wasn't keen,
But with a full year in '08, he proved
That he's OK now, beyond this he's moved.

A great hitter, like Manny, 'gainst lefties
But batting left, his numbers aren't hefty,
Now he must try to hit righty pitching
Or maybe just when he hits, not switching.

7)
The next, um... "hitter" is Pedro Feliz
Who seems to make outs with relative ease.
Suppos'd to stabilize the Corner, Hot,
But hitting .250 is all he's got.

Despite his weak bat, swings for the fences,
No need to walk, he makes no pretenses,
Still plays good defense, but won't steal a base,
OPS so low, how's he show his face?

Better thirdbasemen? Twenty, easily,
Or more, but Philly's minors got measly
Production from theirs, so help's not coming.
City of Brotherly Love? Soon bumming.

8)
Last in the lineup is the day's catcher,
Often Ruiz, whose bat is no match for
Chris Coste, not that his lumber's so awesome,
But at least his bat isn't still playing possum.
Ruiz, now 30, has slim potential
To help the Phillies' run differential.
Nor does Lou Marson, or Ron Paulino.
Eight's a black hole for the Phils, as we know.




The Bench:

The Phillies back-ups, they should do just fine,
Long as they're usually riding the pine.
Not a bad bunch here, some players, decent
But none whose star was bright very recent.

Jenkins, fifth outfielder and pinch hitter,
May be tempted to feel rather bitter,
Signed with the Phillies to be a starter
But found hitting righties last year harder
His one skill gone and injuries nagging
Geoff found his at-bat count sort of lagging.
A different approach he seems to have found,
And hopes for a 2009 rebound.

Stairs has experience, hitting, eating
Now 41, his career's depleting.
A timely bomb made him Philly's hero,
But this year he'll post too many zeroes.
Still hits a homer or walks on occasion
But where can he fit in their equation?
Just a DH in the League, National
They'd cut him loose if they were rational.




The mid-infield back-ups, Bruntlett and Giles
Like pre-owned cars, with no shortage of miles.
Both about 30, with little upside,
Bruntlett, all over, can field the horsehide,
And run just a bit, in case they have need.
Giles once had some pop, and a bit of speed,
And could bounce back, getting out of this rut...
(Monkeys could also fly out of my butt!)

More likely someone like Cairo, Miguel
Or Pablo Ozuna will get to tell
His wife he won the job in Spring Training.
Giles seems to have no more miles remaining.

Main corner back-up, Greg Dobbs they will ring
To spell Feliz from all his out-making.
Not much for defense, Dobbs won't be used long,
But his bat makes up for all his glove's wrongs.

Summary:
Finally, putting these things together
You will all likely want to know whether
The Phillies will win. What are their chances
Of returning to October Dances?

The Phillies will have trouble reprising.
New York Mets, no slouch, and the Fish, rising,
Make stiff competition, as do the Braves
Though none of these teams will draw critics' raves.

Injuries could, the Phillies, sabotage.
Last year they had few, they're due a barrage,
And with some key players, like Cole and Chase
High injury risks, the Phils could, the race
Concede by August, dig too great a hole
To climb out from, as these hurts take their toll.

Too many key players with sudden peaks
Last year aren't likely to keep up those streaks,
Or stave off aging, they're due to endure
Declines in their 40's, they will, for sure,
Show signs of slipping, and with that, the team
Will need much luck to stay up in the stream.
The odds will catch up with the Phils this year
Eighty five wins is the safe bet, I fear.